News, April 2008

Elections 2008 - again hit by terrorism

After an intense campaign, affected at the last moment by a terrorist killing the Socialist party (PSOE) has won the general election. The opposition Partido Popular also gains seats (and votes). The minority parties failed miserably as a 2 party system is consolidated. However, neither the Congress nor the Senate see an overall majority. In the regional election in Andalusia there was an overall majority for the PSOE.

At the end of the Franco dictatorship there were hundreds of little parties, which have gradually disappeared or merged into major coalitions, which in time became parties. Since the socialists have no overall majority, they will still need support of moderate Catalan Nationalist party CiU, or a combination of other tiny parties, to rule in both houses. This means they may not be able to push through so much -or so quickly- 'progressive' legislation as they otherwise might have liked.

In the Senate, the Partido Popular will be the majority party, with 101 seats, although adding the Catalan left wing coalition to PSOE brings it up to the same number of seats, so CiU again hold the key to stability, along with Basque PNV; in Andalusia, PSOE retain absolute majority, despite rise of PP.

Press results comment: BBC:

Mark Mardell's Blog
Main report

The Economist report

NY Times report

Campaign reports

7th March. The 2008 general election campaign has come to an abrupt halt 10 hours early, after ETA assasinated a former Socialist councillor, Isaias Carrasco, on the last day of the campaign. Saturday is a day of reflection and Sunday, 9th March is the election. Once again, an election could be swung by the actions of terrorists.

26th February. Elections will be held on 9th March and the campaign is under way. Last night the two presidential hopefuls, president Zapatero and oposition leader Rajoy, met in a face to face TV debate watched by 13 million. Rajoy was almost totally negative, scarcely giving a hint of future policies and being incapable of defending the more conservative 'family values' of the Partido Popular against the PSOE granting of 'rights' to gays, couples in need of a quick divorce or women facing unwanted pregnancies. Polls tend to give Zapatero the debate victory, but it appears that neither won a significant swing in voter intentions. See the BBC report.

The two leading parties are neck and neck in the general polls. President Zapatero, who won a surprise landslide in the 2004 general election in the wake of the 11th March train bombings in Madrid, now faces the electorate once more. As during the entire intervening period, the governing Socialists (PSOE) went into the precampaign season with a small advantage over the conservative opposition (PP). Main debates cover terrorism and the economy, with the Catholic Bishops having caused a rumpus with a circular to church members. Meanwhile, two pro-independence parties in the Basque Country have had links with ETA proven and were effectively closed down before the campaign. At the end of the campaign, the polls (which have still not conclusively found a winner) may yet be proven wrong, or inadequate, given the new circumstances.

The evangelicals are in a quandry as to how to vote. Historically, if they were politically active at all, they tended to vote for the left of centre PSOE, which represented their own economic condition, but even more stood up to the overpowering influence of the Roman Catholic Church on the right wing. As a despised minority, they felt more comfortable with an uneasy coalition of other minorities.
Meanwhile, however, the PSOE has forced through many changes in the social area, including the status of marriage, rights for homosexuals, etc., pushing evangelicals much closer to the Catholics and PP, who hold the ground for traditional family values.
In these circumstances, it is hard to decide which way to vote. but abstention is less of an option than in the past, when evangelicals felt they had no voice. Now evangelicals in Spain are coming of age, politically. In addition, there are many more evangelicals than four years ago. This is mainly due to immigration, but electorally the migrants also have some clout since those coming from Spain's former colonies in Latin America can claim nationality after just three years. Many have done so and this year will be allowed to vote. EU citizens, however, are not allowed to vote in national or regional elections, but only in municipal ones.

On 1st February a row broke out over a 'pastoral' from the Catholic Bishops' Conference recommending the vote for parties with a good record on family values and which have never negotiated with terrorists. It is understood this means a recommendation to vote for the Partido Popular. Unfortunately, both major parties are considered to have begun talks with ETA over the question of whether it is willing to close down and stop the killing. Whatever the nuances, neither has gone any further than the other in this, leaving only the far left Izquierda Unida as an option on terrorism, but whose 'family values' are rather different to those of Rome!

Press coverage:

The BBC:
the killing
Campaign start report.
ETA call for boycott.
blog on a ghost town, one where developers have been knocked for six by the credit squeeze.

The Economist on
the influence of Immigration.
on the importance of the regions, Basque Country and Catalonia.
the silly promises.
'The coming pain in Spain', concluding: 'In some ways, this may turn out to be an election that it is better to lose than to win.'

Information and graphics related to earlier elections are on our elections comment page.